Term Structures of Asset Prices and Returns -- by David Backus, Nina...
We explore the term structures of claims to a variety of cash flows: US government bonds (claims to dollars), foreign government bonds (claims to foreign currency), inflation-adjusted bonds (claims to...
View ArticleCoordinated Noise Trading: Evidence from Pension Fund Reallocations -- by Zhi...
We document a novel channel through which coordinated noise trading exerts externalities on financial markets dominated by institutional investors. We exploit a unique set of events where Chilean...
View ArticleThe Impact of Innovation in the Multinational Firm -- by L. Kamran Bilir,...
When firms operate production plants in multiple countries, technological improvements developed in one country may be shared with firm sites abroad for efficiency gain. We develop a dynamic model that...
View ArticleTemporary Migration and Endogenous Risk Sharing in Village India -- by...
When people can self-insure via migration, they may have less need for informal risk sharing. At the same time, informal insurance may reduce the need to migrate. To understand the joint determination...
View ArticlePaving the Way to Development: Costly Migration and Labor Market Integration...
How integrated are labor markets within a country? Labor mobility is key to the integration of local labor markets and therefore to understanding the efficacy of policies to reduce regional inequality....
View ArticleCan Currency Competition Work? -- by Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Daniel Sanches
Can competition among privately issued fiat currencies such as Bitcoin or Ethereum work? Only sometimes. To show this, we build a model of competition among privately issued fiat currencies. We modify...
View ArticleOptimal Contracting with Subjective Evaluation: The Effects of Timing,...
We introduce a general Principal-Agent model with subjective evaluation and malfeasance characterized by two-sided asymmetric information on performance that allows for an arbitrary information...
View ArticleCanary in a Coal Mine: Infant Mortality, Property Values, and Tradeoffs...
Pollution is a common byproduct of economic activity. Although policymakers should account for both the benefits and the negative externalities of polluting activities, it is difficult to identify...
View ArticleDifferences in Quarterly Utilization-Adjusted TFP by Vintage, with an...
This paper documents large differences across vintages in the properties of the widely-used quarterly utilization-adjusted TFP series produced by Fernald (2014), who provides updated data each quarter...
View ArticleCorporate Resilience to Banking Crises: The Roles of Trust and Trade Credit...
Are firms more resilient to systemic banking crises in economies with higher levels of social trust? Using firm-level data in 34 countries from 1990 through 2011, we find that liquidity-dependent firms...
View ArticleThe Deposits Channel of Monetary Policy -- by Itamar Drechsler, Alexi Savov,...
We propose and test a new channel for the transmission of monetary policy. We show that when the Fed funds rate increases, banks widen the interest spreads they charge on deposits, and deposits flow...
View ArticleLearning, Career Paths, and the Distribution of Wages -- by Santiago Caicedo,...
We develop a theory of career paths and earnings in an economy in which agents organize in production hierarchies. Agents climb these organizational hierarchies as they learn stochastically from other...
View ArticleLevered Returns -- by Ivo Welch
Do financial markets properly reflect leverage? Unlike Gomes and Schmid (2010) who examine this question with a structural approach (using long-term monthly stock characteristics), my paper examines it...
View ArticleFaculty Preferences over Unionization: Evidence from Open Letters at Two...
What determines employee preferences for unionizing their workplaces? A substantial literature addresses this question with surveys on worker attitudes and pay. Unionization drives at the Universities...
View ArticleThe Real Effects of Liquidity During the Financial Crisis: Evidence from...
Illiquidity in short-term credit markets during the financial crisis might have severely curtailed the supply of non-bank consumer credit. Using a new data set linking every car sold in the United...
View ArticleMeasuring Openness to Trade -- by Michael E. Waugh, B. Ravikumar
In this paper we derive a new measure of openness--the trade potential index--that quantifies the potential gains from trade as a simple function of data. Using a standard multicountry trade model, we...
View ArticleUninformative Feedback and Risk Taking: Evidence from Retail Forex Trading --...
We document evidence consistent with retail day traders in the Forex market attributing random success to their own skill and, as a consequence, increasing risk taking. Although past performance does...
View ArticleThe Global Spatial Distribution of Economic Activity: Nature, History, and...
We study the distribution of economic activity, as proxied by lights at night, across 250,000 grid cells of average area 560 square kilometers. We first document that nearly half of the variation can...
View ArticleA Conceptual Framework for Understanding Critical Transitions -- by Lee J....
Critical transitions for a country are historical periods when the powerful organizations in a country shift from one set of beliefs about how institutions (the formal and informal rules of the game)...
View ArticleCrash Beliefs From Investor Surveys -- by William N. Goetzmann, Dasol Kim,...
Historical data suggest that the base rate for a severe, single-day stock market crash is relatively low. Surveys of individual and institutional investors, conducted regularly over a 26 year period in...
View Article